Thursday, November 30, 2017

Stated Preference v. Revealed Preference

"Revealed Preference" is a term that psychiatrists and economists use, particularly when juxtaposing what one says he wants with that which the person shows that he wants. This is explained much easier with an example.

I say that I want to eat healthy, but I reach for the chicken wings when they're around. My stated preference is to eat healthy; by revealed preference is that I don't really want to eat healthy.

So I think it is with public policy. Our national congress says they want to cut taxes for the middle class and not the wealthy, yet has made the middle class tax cuts temporary and the corporate tax cuts and estate tax cuts permanent. Which one is the stated preference? Which one is the revealed preference?

A thought:
The big tax cut for business owners and heirs to large fortunes will, in the long run, be paid for by people who are not business owners or heirs to large fortunes.
It may be paid for through the long-term middle-class tax increases that are laid out in the bill. Or it may be paid for through large cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other social programs. Or it may be paid for through higher interest rates that raise the cost of new investment to deliver a tax windfall to old capital.
But there is a big tax cut coming for people who own businesses and for people who stand to inherit fortunes worth more than $11 million. And there will be a price for that.
Anyone have thoughts about this on the local level? Is there any "daylight" between Speedway's stated preferences and revealed preferences?

UPDATE:

In response to "Anonymous'" comment that the stock market will "certainly crash once the dems gain control, I submit the following graphics, without additional comment:




3 comments:

  1. I’m thinking since the tax cuts for the “ middle class” begin to fade out after what ? 10 years ? I figure the Democrats will gain control again and most certainly a Democrat will be in the White House in 4 years and this tax plan will get reversed along with everything else Trump has done. It’s the way it works with our polarized parties .
    I’m just trying to figure out how to protect my money in the stock market as it will certainty crash once the dems gain control . I can’t afford to loose money this close to retirement . I may sell my stocks and go conservative before the Democrat gets in , I know I will loose money but at least I will know how much and it will be controlled and of my doing , The current tax situation ? Well that’s going to take care of itself .......

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  2. https://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/indianapolis/former-speedway-official-accused-of-misappropriating-thousands-of-dollars-in-city-funds

    Maybe Scott Harris’s “stated preference “ is much different from his “ perceived difference” for being on the SRC committee now !

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  3. Ooops I meant REVEALED preference , as in the one in the media .... hmmm credit card purchases ( merry Xmas ! ) hmmmm contributions to his HSA account ? How convenient .

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