Don't Say You Weren't Told

I've stated before how frustrating it is when I hear people say something to the effect of "Who could have predicted that X would have had Y consequences?" It's frustrating for me when I predicted that this action would have those consequences. Not to toot my own horn too much, but I predicted:

• That the War in Iraq would go poorly
• That deregulating financial markets would result in a financial crisis
• That Obama's policies would not create runaway inflation, at least not in the short-to-medium term (we still don't know if/whether Obama's policies, if continued for 50 years, will create runaway inflation; however, 50 years from now, it's hard to continue to characterize them as "Obama's policies")
• That "Obamacare" would not result in the end of freedom and a 1,000-year reign of socialist terror (or whatever the nightmare scenarios being pushed on Hannity are at the time)

Of course, it is easy in hindsight to sit around and say, "I told you so." 

So, given that, I will tell you this up front:

•  The Republican Party's "tax reform" is anything but reform, though it will be
•  An enormous tax giveaway to the already wealthy that will
• Explode the national debt and
• Explode the annual deficit and will
• Not achieve the stated goal of increasing economic growth

With respect to the growth, here is a chart of American growth over the years:

Note that Ronald Reagan cut taxes in 1981 and 1986, and George W. Bush cut taxes dramatically in 2001 and 2003. Do you see the dramatic and lasting leaps in GDP growth? I don't. This idea that cutting taxes on the wealthy will kickstart economic growth is simply not supported by the facts.

As a litigator, I know that if I have to argue my theory of the case despite the facts, I'm in for a bad day. Perhaps someday, the median Republican voter will realize that she has been sold a bill of goods on this "trickle down" theory of economic prosperity.

In closing, by way of regurgitating that I am telling you right now what the results of this tax "reform" will be, I leave you with a quote from Paul Krugman:

I very much doubt that additional facts or analysis are going to matter much for the fate of the Trump tax cuts. It’s obvious to pretty much everyone – I suspect even those pushing the cuts – that they will confer huge benefits on the wealthy, do little if anything for the middle class, and greatly increase the deficit.